One of the solutions to the problem, when not the best graduates enter the pedagogical profiles and after graduation are employed in the education system, is the prediction of professional orientation even at the stage of the student choosing their further professional trajectory. To solve this problem, the purpose of the study is to develop and experimentally prove the effectiveness of using a program for predicting the employment of students of a pedagogical university based on the introduction of various machine learning algorithms. Using a random selection of students, the collection and processing of their questionnaires (n=205) in 2011-2016 were carried out. Various machine learning algorithms were used to create the program: decision trees, logistic regression, and catboost. In the course of the experiment, the data of the questionnaires were loaded into the program for its training according to various algorithms, in order to ultimately obtain a finished intellectual product with the ability to predict the employment of graduates. In the final comparison, the program developed on the “decision trees” algorithm made only 2 out 19 questionnaires and 7 out 61, which was the best result – 89%. The implementation of this algorithm makes it possible to most accurately, with the least percentage of errors, identify students who will not be employed in the future according to their profile of study or not employed at all. Thus, the study developed an intelligent program that allows one to instantly process data and get an accurate forecast of employment with only a small probability of error.
Keyword(s) : forecasting
Characteristics of prediction in preschool children with speech impairment
The ability to predict is one of the important aspects of human mental development. There is a
relationship between prognostic competence and the process of socialization. Psychological
studies show that children with special educational needs, including children with general
speech underdevelopment, when compared with their peers without speech pathology, are more
susceptible to impaired socialization and the occurrence of school maladjustment. This affects the
success of their schooling. Such children experience difficulties in complying with social norms
in the implementation of their goals, since they cannot anticipate the consequences of a certain
situation. This can lead to deviant behavior and failure at school. This article examines the features
of the structural and functional characteristics of forecasting in preschoolers with general speech
underdevelopment. It analyzes the research results given in the scientific literature, presents the
results of the authors’ own experimental research conducted using the “Prognostic stories” technique
developed by the teachers of the Department of Psychology and Pedagogy of Special Education of
the Kazan (Volga region) Federal University, and a comparative analysis of the data obtained during
the experiment. The study showed that preschool children with general speech underdevelopment
have lower indicators in all predictive characteristics in comparison with normative peers, and
also have specific prognosis features due to speech pathology and deficiencies in higher mental
functions. The most important of these are the lack of cognitive predictive function and prediction
of utterance. The disadvantages of the prognostic ability of preschoolers with speech pathology
determine the risk of social maladjustment, which requires the attention of specialists in the field
of special education. The results obtained expand the understanding of the state of development of the prognostic competence of preschoolers with general speech underdevelopment. They present a
more complete picture of its specific features, and highlight the most significant disadvantages of
the forecasting process for this category of children. This indicates the directions of work on the
development of prognostic processes in preschoolers with general speech underdevelopment, as
well as the prevention or minimization of the outcomes of school maladjustment.